George Santayana, “Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” This haunting quote should be front and center in the United States today. But is it? I fear it is not, and that may exist at the highest part of our government.

As someone who is trained in U.S. History, I have in my knowledge the events which lead up to the U.S. involvement in World War 2. At that time the U.S. was very much of an isolationist stance among the general public. Those wars already in progress were so far away that there was no way we could, or should, have gotten involved. And yet we did!

Now I am not predicting a Pearl Harbor type situation arising. Fortunately, at the Pentagon level of current situations, the generals and admirals are always plotting a response to all perceived threats to the United States’ security. Europe, of course, is a high priority in that. But only 10 years ago, Russia was already starting a warlike stance. Our complete failure to realize Russia’s imperialistic adventurism allow Russia almost unfettered access to the Crimea which today is under Russian occupation. Former President Obama has admitted to that.

But first I need to go back over 30 years of military history. As was the case after the end of World War 1, the U.S. has steadily decreased it numbers of military servicemen. At first this was a good move. There were many no longer necessary military bases. The Vietnam War had ended, and our troop strength was greater than deemed necessary. I was still a part of the military at that time and saw this firsthand. In the early 1980s, the U.S. Army National Guard was in horrible shape. Many units were still using Korean War equipment. But a plan was afoot in our government to change that. In the ensuing years, the national guard was modernized and brought up to active military standards. But then the politicians turned on the military and started reducing the number and size of military units. For example, the 26th Infantry Division was decommissioned and changed to a brigade strength. That sort of action happened across the U.S. The entire Army National Guard has 336,000 troops today, along with 189,000 reservists backing up 481,000 active-duty personnel. With the exception of the Marine Corps, there has been a decline of about 40% troops strength since 1990! This should be alarming to all.

President Biden has repeated stated that the United States will not send in any troops to help defend the Ukraine. Is this the truth or just political speak? I think it is political speak because as I mentioned before, the Pentagon has for decades formed plans for all possible events.

It has been suggested by analysts that this Wednesday, February 16, 2022, Russia will invade the Ukraine! Is that a foregone conclusion? No! But it would be foolish to not prepare for such an eventuality. And if Russia does indeed invade, what will the U.S. due other than its threatened economic threats? All told, the Russian military has over 2.9 million troops while the Ukraine has 1.1 million. But Russia spends far more per soldier than does the Ukraine. That quite simply explains the U.S. sending military supplies to the Ukraine. In the eventuality that Russia does indeed invade the Ukraine at any date, what will the U.S. response be when the Ukraine asks NATO countries for troops? Can the U.S. and its allies simply say “no”? I do not think so but if we do, both sides are open to “unintended consequences.”

One possible unintended consequence is for Russia to use its nuclear capability on Eastern Europe. Russia fully understands the possible result of this and that is something called “MAD,” or Mutually Assured Destruction. A very appropriate acronym. I seriously doubt in that unintended consequence but the next is very much more likely and that is NATO powers and Russia and its allies being drawn into a full-scale war. Russia’s most important ally is China. China has 2.8 million troops! As much as I think it unlikely that China would respond to a Russian request for troops, it is certain not out of the realm of possibilities. And to put that into perspective, all of NATO has 2.2 million troops. The U.S. Army has 10 active military divisions which totals about 200,000 troops. But the U.S. has only once sent in all of its divisions, World War 2.

The point of all this is how tenuous our military strength is and how we have planned our defensive posture in Europe. Without U.S. and NATO intervention, Russia could easily overwhelm the Ukraine. And if that happens, what of the other Eastern European Countries, former Soviet Satellites? Even though we have some troops in each of these countries, we are hardly in a condition to properly respond militarily to any Russian provocation.

Finally, in addition to reconsidering the size of our military, the U.S. public needs to consider the possibility that Russia, under Putin’s dictatorship, is considering regaining control of Eastern Europe. The Ukraine may be nothing more than a ploy to test NATO’s response to its adventurism.