NFL

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The Sins of the NFL


The NFL, and Roger Goodell in particular, created a monster that has been wreaking havoc on the villagers ever since. And after millions of dollars spent and over 210 days since the crime of the century, in NFL terms, what do we really know now? There are only three reasonable conclusions a rational person can come to from everything that has been reported: one, 11 of 12 Patriots footballs were measured and found to be below the minimum league standard and, two, existing NFL procedures were either circumvented or broken by the New England Patriots organization and, three, the NFL was lacking in protocol to insure the integrity of game day balls.

A reasonable person and good leader would have, by January 31, 2015, fined the Patriots $275,000 or more for the ball violations and moved on. Unfortunately there were other players in this game who desired something more. We now know that those individuals were Ryan Grigson of the Indianapolis Colts and the Baltimore Ravens’ special teams coach. To be fair, it is likely other teams have complained about how the Patriots go about business over the years. But with the Colts playing the Patriots for the AFC championship the NFL felt the need to look into the Colts’ complaint. The league has both the right and responsibility to take such actions. But for reasons we will never know the league decided to play the game of “Gotcha!” That by itself was bad enough except a league official roamed the Patriots’ sideline at half-time and proclaimed, in particularly foul language, that the Patriots had been caught and were going down. His actions were reprehensible.

Roger Goodell had two choices that Monday morning, fine the Patriots for what had been found or launch an investigation. He decided it would be a lot more fun to open Pandora’s Box and see what flew out. But what Goodell failed to realize was that making visible the failures of the Patriots his own would necessarily come to light. But an extremely weak league leadership decided to make a murder mystery out of an illegal left turn violation.

For months now the focus has been on how the Patriots went about deflating footballs and how Tom Brady was involved. After he spent about $4 million, Ted Wells only conclusion, with regard to the Patriots, should have been that the Patriots organization acted contrary to NFL rules concerning the security and transportation of footballs. The actions of their ball boys show that to be true beyond any doubt, reasonable or otherwise.

But Ted Wells in all his wisdom declared, “But when you combine the break in protocol, the text messages, and the science, we felt comfortable reaching a judgment.” He is absolutely correct regarding the protocol, of dubious judgment regarding the texts, and entirely wrong regarding the science.

I accept the lapse in protocol as proven, it was. The text messages are a different thing however. Most damning was McNally calling himself “the deflator.” The Patriots foolishly tried to pass such a reference as the guy desiring to lose weight. Ridiculous! But the one question that needed to be asked of McNally, but never was, at least by Wells, was, “How long have you called yourself ‘the deflator?’” I suspect, and believe, that this moniker may well go back as far as 2007 when Brady and Manning got the league’s blessing to do things to the game balls so that the balls felt good to them. I suspect balls were tossed to Brady by the equipment manager and Brady would either accept or reject them because of how they felt in his grip. He likely complained about their inflation level and demanded they be deflated a little. But it is unlikely he either knew or considered league standards for inflation. This likely went on for years with McNally taking air out of balls on so many occasions over the years that he jokingly called himself “the deflator.” This in itself is damning to the Patriots because it shows a lack of control over their personnel. It is the job of equipment managers and those who work under them to thoroughly understand NFL regulations regarding any and all types of game day equipment for which they are responsible. The Patriots were obviously lax in this regard and absolutely deserved to be punished. The degree of punishment leveled in this particular situation is beyond any reasonable explanation to include, but not limited to, the integrity of the game.

As for the science, the only conclusion any reputable scientist can come to, given what was known, is that the 11 footballs were outside acceptable limits. How they got there is not provable. You cannot apply the gas law, or any other scientific measure, for one simple reason: there exists no verifiable starting point. A good and thorough scientific experiment requires repeatable and verifiable conditions. To do this the scientist would want all 24 game day balls. The first thing they do upon gaining possession of those balls is test their integrity, that is, they inspect the balls for flaws, leakage at the valve and all other points on the ball. That done they test to balls using very exacting conditions that mimic the game day. Of greatest interest to the scientist would have been the particular ball that lost the most pressure. That ball would be tested multiple times in an attempt to either show or disprove that the amount of pressure lost was natural or as the result of human intervention.

Any business that prides itself in its research abilities prides itself in being able to inform the customer of results which go contrary to their expectations. But we have no evidence that Exponent, the company Wells hired to do the scientific investigation, advised Wells of problems with the investigation either prior to or during the process. As someone who has done such investigations, I would have advised Wells that I would need the exact state of all 24 footballs prior the beginning of the game and that lacking such information any conclusion would be speculative at best. We do not know if Exponent ever said this to Wells but it is a reasonable question to ask.

The NFL, and Roger Goodell in particular, had one last chance to get in front of this whole debacle when the Wells Report was released. The report actually did a good job of showing the shortcomings of many individuals and organizations. It showed the Patriots organization did not follow NFL rules regarding the security of footballs. It showed that exact same thing for the referees present at the championship game. They too are fully responsible for ball security but not a single one of those officials took the Patriots to task for allowing McNally to even touch a single ball. It was not McNally’s job to carry footballs to the field of play and the officials should have known that. Furthermore, considering the gravity of the game, the head official should have assigned one of his team to accompany the footballs to the field. And lastly, the NFL was shown lacking in rules regarding care and security of the footballs. It acknowledged as much when it released its revised standards at the end of July 2015. All Goodell needed to do once the Wells Report was released was acknowledge that errors in judgment had been made at all levels. He still could have fined the Patriots, and should have, and ended this whole mess in a single act. It would not have been popular with a majority of the owners, his employer, but it would have been the right thing to do. But such a pronouncement would have shown he was truly concerned with the integrity of the NFL. A good leader recognizes that there are times he will have to stand against popular opinion in doing what is right.

Given all this, Tom Brady’s involvement in all this, even at the most egregious level, is rendered moot. Had those individuals and organizations involved in game day activities done their job, Brady could not possibly have been able to affect ball inflation. To the contrary, game officials would have quickly become aware of Brady’s involvement and been able to quickly and unequivocally correct and report his actions. That, of course, did not happen. The integrity of the game had been compromised for years because of the NFL’s own lacking. The NFL never cared enough to exhaustively define what game integrity involved and then put rules in effect which would guarantee it. Had such rules existed, this whole affair would have been reconciled prior to the AFC Championship game, Wells would never have been hired, and few people would even remember anything ever happened.

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Brady’s Footballs: What Really Happened


Since January, the NFL has had its focus entirely on what happened to 12 New England footballs during the AFC Championship game.  After over 100 days of investigation and millions of dollars spent, the best they could come up with was “more likely than not.”  This is an extremely ambiguous statement.  What does it mean?  How do you quantify such a statement?  And how do you justify making such a statement where a person’s career is involved?

I think Ted Wells is likely to most disingenuous person I have ever heard of around pro-sports.  If I, or any other researcher, had published such a report, those people who employed me should be looking for their money back because I certainly had done a questionable job at best.  And certainly not a job worth multiple millions of dollars.  Wells chose to publish only those points that support a finding of fault on Brady’s and the Patriots organization.  Worse, he made claims of lack of cooperation which have since been shown to be at least partly if not fully false.  You cannot publish a report which makes false statements.

Strangely, Wells’ statement is probably true that Brady was generally aware of what was happening with the footballs!  But he has failed to connect Brady to anything.  Had he been a real researcher he would have known better than to limit the scope of his investigation to that single game, or for that matter, the previous games that New England played this past season.  A thorough investigation would have shed light on Brady’s likely involvement. Here’s why.

Back in 2006, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning got the NFL to agree to a rule change.  This rule change allowed them to get the footballs a quarterback is going to use in any particular game into the shape they want.  That does not, however, allow for any deviation from the football inflation constraints.  But it did empower all NFL quarterbacks.  And so as the years passed, Brady, Manning, Farve, Rivers, Rogers, and all other quarterbacks of their caliber got to fool around with the footballs.  No one took much notice, not even the referees.  By 2014 they had all made their preference known to those team personnel who prepared the footballs for game day.  Brady likes his footballs at the bottom end of allowable.  I suggest that Brady probably off-handedly, and more than once, said to these personnel that he preferred his footballs below the allowable pressure.  But, he likely never instructed them to do so.  Just as Aaron Rogers likely never instructed those people on his team to over-inflate his footballs.

The attitude of game officials at the AFC Championship game of 2014 shows us exactly how important this was to them, zero.  Even though Walt Anderson had been advised prior to the game of possible issues, I suspect he went about his business just as he had in all his previous 19 years of games, he looked the balls over for obvious violations and finding none he allowed them into the game.  I think it likely he checked a couple of balls for pressure and finding now problems, or fixing those he found, he allowed the rest into the game.  I think it likely all game officials having been acting in like manner since the NFL had previously not made it a priority.  Scott Zolak suggested that such complacency has always existed in the NFL.

What further backs this up is the record of McNally carrying the 12 footballs from the preparation room where the game officials sit to the sidelines unaccompanied.  That is contrary to the rules and yet it was allowed to happen.  The question is, how commonplace are such acts around the league?  I suspect it was very common.  Officials heretofore had never thought it all that important and therefore never enforced the rule.

What Wells needed to do, and did not do, was poll other referees around the NFL about how they treated the game day footballs allowing them anonymity in relating their sense of what has happened with them.  He also should have anonymously polled the other 31 team equipment managers about their actions.  Team and NFL lack of vigilance on properly inflated footballs more probably than not would have shown the general feeling that how a quarterback wants his football is how he gets it, even if it does mean a rule is violated.

What comes of a proper investigation in this case is that the NFL itself had not created a standard operation procedure for the handling of footballs prior to the beginning of the game.  Any organization that finds rules it creates to be crucial to its image makes certain there is a comprehensive paper trail coupled with exacting directions.

Tom Brady certainly made it known to his equipment manager, Jastremski, exactly how he liked his footballs.  It is unlikely he said anything on the day of the AFC Championship game, or even in the days immediately prior to the game, because it was already well established what he wanted.  He likely suspected the footballs were underinflated but chose not to say anything lest that be changed.

Similarly, Walt Anderson knew the rules of how footballs are to be delivered to the sidelines but when he noticed McNally taking them by himself it was just something he had observed 100 times before with every team in the NFL and it did not occur to him that it was anything out of the usual or even an infraction.

Brady needs to own his part in this, Goodell his failures, Wells his failures, etc.  This is an institutional failure more than it is the failing of any one individual.  Goodell desperately needs to vacate the Wells report, all punishment levied, and announce that the NFL has failed the fans and show the changes that are put in place to insure that things like this never happen again.

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Brady Innocent, NFL Guilty!


I have done a fair amount of research during my life, one paper being published in a scientific journal (http://arc.aiaa.org/doi/abs/10.2514/6.2003-379).  In writing that report room for error was tight, that is, a reasonable person reading the report and have knowledge of the conditions discussed, would agree with my/our findings.  Ted Wells is an attorney who is well versed in evidence.  The phrase “a preponderance of evidence” is key in any courtroom as an offer of proof.  But what does he say in his report?  “More likely than not.”  Can you imagine him saying that in a courtroom?  He would be laughed out!  His “evidence” would be dismissed, absolutely!  At 51% you reach the “more likely” category but what meaning does that hold.  I suspect he was thinking along the lines of 60% likelihood but even so, that cannot by any standard be taken as guilt.

The bottom line here is, if you cannot prove something “beyond a reasonable doubt,” something else Wells is very familiar with, you have nothing!

But I hold Goodell more to blame for all this than anyone else.  I wrote immediately following this incident that Goodell’s move was to inform the Patriots of what he had been told and said to them, “we will be checking and you better no be doing anything!”  Had he done that, and the balls found underinflated still, then he would really have had something.  Now he has bupkis!  Nada!  Nothing!

Now everyone is discussing what punishment needs to be levied.  They point to Gordon, Hardy, and Rice and say how they were severely fined.  True, but in each case there was incontrovertible proof of their wrong doing.  Here they only have the suggestion of proof and nothing more.  To fine Brady anything at all would be wrong in every sense of the word.  The NFL’s best course is to fine the organization, a large fine to quell the critics, and move on.

If they do punish Brady I cannot imagine anything more than a fine.  The first game of the season is prime-time Pittsburgh versus New England with Ben Rothlisburger going up against……..Jimmy Garropolo?  I don’t think so!

What this report shows more than anything how poorly the NFL conducts its business.  Had the inflation level of the footballs been as important prior to that fateful game, there would have been a foolproof system of tracking the balls and insuring the integrity of the game, but there were not and are not.  This is just another case of the NFL, and Goodell in particular, remaining reactive and not proactive as would be the intelligent way to do business.

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NFL, Goodell Botch Deflated Football Investigation


I went on the record here right after this whole mess started by stating I thought the Patriots were “obviously” at fault.  A day later I was not nearly so sure.  And now I am convinced the Patriots are simply the victims of Roger Goodell’s incompetence.  The only thing that has kept this story alive is the NFL’s lack of transparency.  In truth, it is, as the Bard penned, “much ado about nothing.”  The naysayers will have you believe that this is really about the integrity of “them game” and the NFL.  Well, that went right out the window when Goodell decided, for God knows what reason, to be 100% secretive about what they knew.  To make matters worse, there have been leaks from “well-placed sources.”  Goodell’s absolute failure to address any of those leaks shows exactly how incompetent he really is.  And worst of all, this has generated more adverse controversy than the Ray Rice scandal ever did.  And this is all over how much a bunch of footballs were inflated in a game where both teams have stated they could have been playing with a bar of soap and the outcome would have been the same?

First of all there is a rat on the loose.  By that I mean, for this to have gained any momentum at all someone at some team, I am betting on Baltimore, complained to the league offices that he suspected the Patriots of using underinflated balls.  What this coward did not do is bring it up immediately but waited until just before the AFC Championship game.  It is also my bet that this person was not the owner, head coach or other official of the Ravens at that level but someone at a slightly lower level who spoke out of turn, without permission of his boss, but that the statement made, like Pandora’s box, raised the specter of impropriety forcing the NFL to take action.

Roger Goodell is informed and realizes he must do something to maintain the integrity of the game.  Had this been his predecessor, Paul Tagliabue, he would have quickly, and quietly, informed the 32 owners of the suspicion which had been raised and that checks on the condition of the balls would be made.  Had Goodell done that, the actions of a good leader, the only thing we would have talked about over the past 8 or 9 days, would have been the Super Bowl match-ups.  But of course Goodell lacked common sense and allowed the opening of Pandora’s box.

Goodell is a lawyer and should be well versed in the concept of total transparency during an investigation.  In most investigations the public’s demand for information is answered in a reasonable way.  The public is generally given enough information from the investigators, and/or, the originators, so they have a fair understanding of what is transpiring.  In this case, however, Goodell has allowed speculation, hyperbole, unsubstantiated leaks, and all sorts of foolishness to grow and fester in the public’s mind.  Journalists, broadcast and print, have fallen into the trap and become proponents of even the flimsiest of statements.  The latest being that the NFL has video of a ballboy doing something.  That of course came from Fox news who, like journalist tend to do, refuse to name their sources.  And that has been the downfall of every journalist to date.  They have allowed all these unsubstantiated reports to take on a life of their own and added to it by introducing their own theories.  It is exactly like the Salem witch trials: a harmless interaction between two girls and their nanny is mixed with fear and sensationalism, and suddenly what should have been attributed to youthful foolishness turns into something ugly and entirely unwarranted.

Goodell blew it a second time when he had the opportunity, Wednesday January 21 at the latest, to tell us what the league knew for fact, not speculation. He could have said something like, “the head linesman checked all 12 Patriots balls and found 11 of them did not meet the minimum requirement.  They were between 1/2 and 1 p.s.I. out of range.  At this moment we do know the reason for this but we have no reason to believe they have been tampered with.  We will, however, continue to investigate this and will report our finding when completed.”  A statement like that which would have been 100% true would likely have made this backburner news for everyone.  It would not have let the Patriots off the hook but simply by saying that they know of no tampering would have put this entire issue in proper light.

For my entire adult working life I worked in jobs which required research.  I have been published in a scientific journal, ( http://arc.aiaa.org/doi/abs/10.2514/6.2003-379), and submitted scholarly papers at Harvard University.  In all instances it was both expected and required that I name my sources and reference primary sources.  A primary source is an actual witness to an event or scientific proof of an assertion.  Without that my assertions have no merit and can be dismissed as untrue.  It is that principle I call the journalists who have reported on this mess to hold themselves to.  I believe that if they have graduated from any reputable school of journalism, they were taught that this principle reigns supreme.  Otherwise good journalists have allowed themselves to be caught up in this foolishness.  It is foolishness because to date not a single shred of evidence of even this slightest amount of wrongdoing has been demonstrated.  Goodell could have done on Wednesday what Bellichik did on Saturday and that would have been the end of it.  He could have said on Wednesday that he has instructed all 32 teams to be more vigilant with regard to ball pressure during the course of a game.  But when you lack the common sense principles of good leadership, you fail to do these things.

For Roger Goodell this football season has been an unmitigated disaster and he has only himself to blame.  If he has an ounce of integrity, immediately following this inquiry’s finding he will resign for the good of the league.  His consistent bad judgment cannot be tolerated.

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Patriots Football Controversy


It would appear the New England Patriots are guilty of a rule infraction relative to football pressure.  Shame on them!  But shame on the NFL as well.  Non Patriots fans, Patriots haters, have more fodder to throw in the Patriots’ direction.  But this particular problem has been blown so far out of proportion as to defy common sense.  People are calling for the Patriots to forfeit a draft pick for this infraction as well as heavy fines.  But the NFL, and Roger Goodell in particular, are equally as guilty.

This infraction, at its egregious best, is worthy of little more than a slap on the wrist.  Why?  Because such practices came to light well before the Patriots Colts game.  Aaron Rogers is on the record for having said he purposely over-inflates the balls he uses because he can get a better grip on the ball.  Worse, he chided the NFL to catch him which shows his knowledge of his own wrongdoing and daring the NFL to take action.  His statement was not made in the last week but over a month ago.

The Minnesota Vikings were warned prior to a particularly cold game this season that they cannot use sideline heaters to warm up the ball, an infraction noted in the same paragraph as ball inflation.  The NFL has in its possession film which shows the Vikings blatantly disregarded the warn and were in fact warming up the balls during the game.  The NFL took no action.

This leaves the NFL with a serious problem of what to do in the Patriots’ case.  To do nothing other than say “don’t do it again” will enflame many.  But whatever action they take against the Patriots requires they take action against the Packers and Vikings as well.

This is absolutely an infraction for- which New England must be held accountable.  However, it is not very serious, at all, regardless of what Patriot detractors want to say.  The solution is a simple one:  The NFL itself will supply all game balls and will be responsible for their possession and introduction into all games.  That possession will include balls being held on the sideline so when a new ball is introduced into the game, it will come from NFL possession and not team possession.

This issues needs to be over this week and end the distraction from the Super Bowl.