space

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UFOs: Where Would They Come From and How Did They Get here; What Do They Want?


Since the late 1940s there has been almost an obsession with the existence of UFOs. For the purpose of this paper, I am going to assume they do exist. That done they must be explained as to where they came from and how they got here. Neither is at all easy.

I must establish certain basics for this conversation to continue. First, distance in the universe is measured in light years. A light year is not a measurement of time but of distance, 5,878,499,810,000 mile to be exact.  That is 5,878 billion miles.  To put that in some sort of context, Pluto is 3.67 billion miles from the Sun or 3.65 billion miles from Earth.  Regardless, it took the New Horizons space craft almost 10 years to travel that short distance, relative to the whole universe or even our own galaxy.  At the speed of light, that trip would have taken about 5 hours.  The closest star to us is Proxima Centauri at 4.24 light years.  The closest galaxy, Andromeda, is 2.537 million light years away.  The edge of the known universe is some 13.5 billion light years away.

Now, Einstein postulated, and physicists have since proven, at least to some degree, that the faster you need to go the more energy you need.  That part seems obvious however when you talk about going the speed of light they speculate you would need an infinite amount of energy, an impossibility.  All right, so let us say our visitors figured out how to travel half the speed of light, highly unlikely, but even so, if they were from Proxima Centauri, their journey here, one way, would take almost 9 years.  And if they could only manage one tenth the speed of light, the journey takes 42 years.  Light travels at 670.6 million miles an hour.  The New Horizons spacecraft traveled at 36,300 miles per hour.  And somehow we need to get to 67 million miles an hour to have any sort of reasonable chance of visiting our nearest neighbor.  We have not a clue how to do that but that does not mean distant civilizations have not resolved that problem.

In his general theory of relativity, Einstein defined space and time.  We hold fast to that principle today.  But physicists have noted that the space/time continuum can be bent as evidenced in the existence of black holes.  Our own Sun causes and bending of that as well, just not to the degree a black hole does.  From this, scientists speculate that through this bending process large distances in space can be conquered through this bending process.  For example, imagine a sheet of 8 ½ by 11 paper and that is space/time.  Take one edge and fold it towards the other.  Now if you are sitting on the one edge the trick becomes jumping to the other because of the bend.  If a very advanced civilization has resolved that problem then the crossing of great distances become a much easier thing.  Gene Roddenbury’s imaginative Star Trek may have inadvertently supplied us the answer is his use of “warp speed.”  That warping is of the space in front of the space craft and this is how physicists imagine it might be accomplished.

The how to get here resolved, more or less, we are left with the questions of who and where?  It is good to note that 100 years ago humans believed they were the only intelligent life forms in the universe.  This, of course, is a very arrogant belief.  Today’s astronomers are discovering planets outside our own solar system all the time.  They have discovered nearly 2000 planets, exoplanets they call them for their existence outside our solar system.  These planets have been attached to 1225 stars with a number of stars having multiple planets orbiting them.  As we continue to gaze skyward that number will and is climbing.  But even more importantly, these same brilliant scientists have calculated the possibility of the existence of intelligent life form existing anywhere in the universe.  They have decided that it is a certainty.  We are just now discovering life on other planets and moons in our own solar system which, by extension, leaves us with the almost absolute certainty of life existing in every galaxy in the universe.  And how many galaxies are there?  At latest count, over 100 billion!

I suspect that we have been visited by extraterrestrial life forms who find our planet a curiosity and nothing more.  The most likely scenario is that they, like us, are on scientific fact finding missions.  At some point they may want to contact us but thus far have not found any good reason.  We just are not that interesting.  Such scientists have likely encountered a thousand other civilizations at various points in their existence, and having studied them categorized us as being just like one or more of those thousands of other civilizations.  We simply do not warrant greater consideration.  But if they do decide to contact us, I suspect we will have to prove ourselves as being a lot more worthy than we are now.  We as a race love war and violence far too much for an extraterrestrial scientific expedition to take a chance on us as we now exist.

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Five Books That Are Must Reads


I probably read at least 25 books a year.  In this day and age, I would say that is a bit unusual.   The closing of so many book stores, most recently the national chain Borders, tells me that people just do not buy books as much as they used to.  There are those who claim the internet and electronic media are to blame.  I am sure that is true in part, but I think technology is getting in the way of people feeling like they need to read anything at all.

That said, I want to offer up five books, all classics, that I consider must reads.  These are books that I think have a timeless quality to them not to mention how well they are written compared with today’s pulp fiction.  I read a lot of that pulp fiction and truly enjoy it.  But the manner in which these old classics were written is beyond compare.

1.  Silas Marner by George Eliot —  The author George Eliot is the pen name of Mary Ann Evans.  At the time of its publication, 1861, female writers were not taken as seriously as their male counterparts.  Silas Marner is the story of an English peasant who one day finds a very young girl who has been abandoned by her mother.  It tells of how Silas brings up the girl and his reception by the townspeople and the local nobility.  At the time of its writing the novel was considered quite risqué because of its bluntness in dealing with human relationships of all sorts.  It is also a love story, a murder mystery, and an editorial of English society of the day.  Once started, I think this book is a real page turner by anyone who undertakes it.

2.  Main Street by Sinclair Lewis — I remember hearing about this book way back when I was in high school and my attitude towards it was that it must be boring.  But recently I decided to expand my mind a bit by reading accepted classics and this was one of my first.  Main Street is the story of a doctor, Will Kennicott, who is one of three doctors who attended to the city of Gopher Prairie Minnesota.  Lewis, himself a trained physician, takes on the social mores of the day and drapes them over the people of the metropolis of Gopher Prairie.  The good doctor per chance meets Carol Milford, a librarian in St. Paul.  What you get is a view of small town America as seen through the eyes of these two people, Carol, who longs for city life and all it offers, and Dr. Kennicott, who assures Carol that Gopher Prairie offers so much more than any city.  What we get is an excellent view of early 20th century life in middle-America.  Lewis places many moral and ethical questions in Dr. Kennicott’s path as he moves through his life.  The style of writing is exemplary and makes you wonder if such well-written prose is taking shape today.

3.  The Financier by Theodore Dreiser — Dreiser is one of my favorite authors and as such it was difficult for me to pick one of three of his books which I love, Sister Carrie and An American Tragedy.  The Financier is the story of Frank Algernon Cowperwood and based on the real-life story of C.T. Yerkes, a magnate of the late 19th century.  This was to be the first of a trilogy Dreiser had planned but never completed.  His second book, The Titan, finishes the life of the inimitable Cowperwood.  The story starts with the teenaged Frank A. Cowperwood deciding he need to do something with his life that did not include any more formal schooling.  He quickly discovers he has a talent for making money in the buying and selling of commodities in Philadelphia, his hometown and the setting for this first novel.  Cowperwood’s genius for financial gain quickly lands him in the good favor of those trading on the local stock exchange.  Cowperwood’s life takes off from there as he decides early on that he is going to be rich.  Dreiser treats us to the shady inner workings of financial manuevers of the 1860s and 1870s and Cowperwood’s unscrupulous dealings.  Once done with this book you will most likely want to tackle The Titan to find out what happens.

4.  Ethan Frome by Edith Wharton — Wharton is reknown for her commentary on late 19th Century society.  Ethan Frome is the story of a man, Frome, in the New England town of Starkfield.  Frome’s wife, Zeena, is a cold and sickly character who Ethan attends to but moves through life as it were a heavy burden.  One day, however, the home is visited by Zeena’s cousin Mattie.  Mattie is everything Zeena is not.  It is the story of how these three live together and their relationships to one another develops.

5.  Space by James A. Michener — This is an historical fiction of the first magnitude.  To understand how well it is written, the reader should first look to the rear of the book.  Not to find out how it ends, but to take note of the many pages of footnotes Michener has made that shows a high degree of research that went into the writing of this book.  That alone makes it stand out.  Michener takes us from the Nazi German research facility at Peenemunde where the V-1, V-2, and V-3 rockets were developed and how, at war’s end, the Nazi scientists, Werner von Braun among them, came to arrive in the United States and champion the U.S. space effort.  He also starts us at the battle of the Coral Sea giving a riveting account of how a glorious ship’s captain emerged victorious facing overwhelming odds, and came to be an astronaut after the war.  What we get is an extremely inciteful account of the beginnings of NASA, the research scientists involved, the astronauts themselves, and all the politics that goes along with it.  He takes us through the Apollo 18 space mission.  Michener wrote the book after the actual final Apollo mission, number 17.  In reality NASA had planned out 21 missions so Michener’s playing out an 18th mission is by no means a stretch.

I hope these are five books you may never have contemplated reading either because more well-known classics have shadowed them, or because you just have not considered them.  Regardless, they are each worthy of reading and each is relevent to today.  None is too dated to be considered.

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Has the Earth Been Visited By Alien Life Forms?


Personally, I think it entirely likely.  I am not going to point to UFO sightings or any such thing but rather just a little bit of logic.  But first we need to establish our place in the universe.  By that I mean, exactly where are we in this great big universe?

It is believed that we sit on one of the spiral arms of the Milky Way Galaxy.  It is only a belief because, of course, we simply do not have a good vantage point to see our entire galaxy.  In reality, the shape of our galaxy is mostly an educated guess, but probably a pretty good one.  Our galaxy is between 100 and 120,000 light years across.  Light travels 5.87849981 × 1012 miles in one year, or about 6,000 trillion miles.  And it gets better.  Within our galaxy there exist a least 1 billion stars.  Now if you consider the chance of life just within our galaxy to be a million to one against that any single star has life in its proximity, that means life is almost a sure thing within our galaxy alone.

Astronomers know that there are at least a billion galaxies each with a billion stars in our universe.  With such numbers the chance of life is not only a sure thing, but is more a case of how many instances does it exist.

The Andromeda Galaxy is our closest galactic neighbor.  It sits a mere 200 million light years away.  That means that any life form that set out from Andromeda at a speed just slightly less than the speed of light had to have left long before dinosaurs existed on Earth just to arrive here in present day.  I think it reasonable to conclude that travel from there is unlikely using all light speed based scenarios.

The closest star to us in Proxima Centauri which is a mere 4.2 light years away, or 20,000 trillion miles away.  Right now about the only theories of how to travel such distances exist mainly in science fiction.  While physicists speculate how we might build a space ship to accommodate such speed, the energy required is greater than all known sources.  And yet I say other beings have likely resolved such problems.  How?

Astro-phycisists speculate that the way to traverse such a distance is through the distortion of space-time.  Scientists have been able to minutely affect the shape of space-time which allows for far greater distortions even though we do not have the means at present.

Our solar system has existed for the last third of the time the universe has existed.  That means another “solar system” could have been in existence during the 4 billion years prior to ours, have given rise to intelligent life forms who in turn have resolved many of the problems of long distance travel.  It is possible they have existed for billions of years where mankind has existed for only 1 to 2 million years.  That would give them a pretty good leg up on us in all respects.  So much so that they could have foreseen the demise of the star where they originally existed and have moved on to another.   That being the case, their traveling to our solar system would be old hat.

How does this bending of space work?  Let’s consider we decide we want to travel from New York City to Sydney Australia.  We get on an airplane and travel over 10,000 miles to get there.  At 500 MPH that would take about 20 hours of flying time.  But, if we could go straight through the earth to Sydney the distance is reduced to a little over 3000 miles, or 6 hours of time at 500 MPH.   That is the “bending” that physicists suggest we do with space-time to reduce travel time.

We earthlings are right now devising theories to tackle to problems of traveling great distances.  It is not unreasonable to expect that a society a mere 1,000 years advanced from us may well have such problems at least partially resolved.  And when you allow for an alien society to have existed even more than that you by extension increase the probability that they have also done interstellar travel and possibly intergalactic travel.

All things considered, I think it most likely that we have been visited and studied by E.T.  I suspect that contact has not been made simply because we are viewed as far too primitive, and also probable communications problems.  How do you tell a primitive society, us, that you come in peace?  Considering how warlike humans are that is no easy task.

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What the Year 2020 Will Look Like


Everyone likes to make predictions, and I am no different.  There was a time in my life that my job depended upon my knowing exactly where the cutting edge of technology was.  I was quite fortunate for having worked at M.I.T. in the mid-1980s on a computer development project.  We were working on networking computers, and describing what a computer work station should look like software wise.  It was a good education in the sorts of things to look for.

As far as computers are concerned the speed of the home computer will continue to increase but not at the rates that we have seen in the past ten years.  The top end of home computing speed right now is about 3.2 gigahertz.  By 2020 I expect that speed will be roughly 4.5 gigahertz.  What will hold down speed is the ability of chip makers to produce processors that have more and more transistors on them.  They have already introduced the idea of dual processors to mimic speed increase.  What is really happening is two processors doing the work that one used to but at the same relative speed.  The breakthrough will come when they develop processors that use light instead of electricity.

What will continue to move forward in leaps and bounds is the ability of computers to deal with graphical data.  The time it takes a computer to find a piece of data and display it is the heart and soul of computing.  But right now one of our great limitations is the ability of the Internet to pass data along.  There is a little thing called “bandwidth” that dictates how much data can be sent at any particular moment in time.  That bandwidth is the same as the size of a pipe dictating how much water can be pushed through it.  Therefor, the two most important parts of the Internet are the computers that hold the data and their ability to retrieve the data, and, the ability of the transmission lines to carry that data.  Both those things are going to increase dramatically.  There will be a dramatic shift from the copper wire carrying data towards fibre-optics carrying data.  That alone will increase both bandwidth and data speed.

Here is a hurtful prediction.  Expect the price of gasoline to be around $10 a gallon.  With that the death of the SUV and the American full size car will have happened.  Also, the death of Chrysler Corporation along with the possible deaths of Ford and GM.  Why?  They still have not gotten it.  That it is simply the types of cars offered by Toyota, Nissan, and Honda.  Toyota’s largest sedan is about the size of American mid-sized cars while the rest of their fleets are the size of or smaller than American small cars.  What can save GM and Ford will be their ability to supply small fuel-efficient cars, more so than they do now.  But also, they need to make more readily available their hybrid cars.  Case in point, I tried to buy a Ford Fusion hybrid this past summer.  I was told that the waiting time for such cars was 90 to 120 days.  I was not willing to wait.  I could have bought a Prius however without a wait.  That means American automobile manufacturers are not being fully competitive with the Japanese.  That will be their downfall.

There is one type of automobile, not now available anywhere, that could become popular with the fast rising prices of crude oil.  That type is the liquid natural gas car.  The only thing that need be put in place for that to be viable is a distribution system for automobiles.  There is actually a good distribution of this fuel for buses and trucks.  Furthermore, the fuel is far more ecologically friendly and is in abundance in North America.  What could push this fuel into the forefront is the stability of the middle east.  If it destabilizes greatly, which it could, that would quickly push up the price of crude quickly.

By 2020 I expect China will begrudgingly abandon the Communist Party as its population moves towards 1.5 billion.  This will be in large part due to the increased difficulty of importing oil and other resources not natural to China.  As the Chinese economy increasingly relies upon capitalism to fill its needs, and the older party leadership dies, it will find itself migrating away from Communism.

Expect by 2020 the Euro to be a memory as more and more countries abandon it in favor of its own currency.  While European economic unity continues to be a good idea, its single currency will be found to be an impediment to the economic stability of individual countries, and therefore abandoned.

One of the strange results of the coming oil shortage will be the decreased unemployment.  Americans are going to find it more economical to buy local, or buy American.  The price of transportation long distances will increase much faster than markets can bear.  That will mean imported goods will increase enough in price that Americans will look for lesser expensive domestic products.  This, of course, will in turn put a lot of American to work.  But it will also make American goods more desirable in foreign markets.

Environmentalists will be unhappy with this because there will be a huge push for production of electricity from coal.  It will also lead to the beginning of a new series of nuclear power plants.  But because of the time it takes to build a plant they will not start coming on-line until the very end of the decade or later.  Still, that will mean our becoming more independent of foreign oil.

George Clooney will get married.

So will JaLo, yet again.

The number of cable channels will more than double if not triple.  The 998 channels now available will not be enough to handle the demand.  Expect big increases in the number of religiously based networks and sports networks.  Cable television will become much more specialized in those areas along with news networks that will start offering news programs based in foreign countries.

Manned space flight will not return but there will be an increase in unmanned space activities in the world of science.  Along with that will be the increased use of satellite telephones.  Companies now offering cell phone use will soon switch to satellite cell phones simply because the need for earth based physical plants will decrease dramatically with their increase.

Satellite radio will increase dramatically and decrease the number of broadcast radio stations greatly.  Satellite radio and GPS systems will be standard equipment in cars.

Well, that is it for now.  I expect there will be a part 2 to this as I consider the subject some more.